Giveaway impact

Housam

what will be the impact of stellar giveaway on the price and circulation supply?

biergod

I wrote this already in the @stellarlumens telegram group, but I will copy and paste it here:

Giveaway: Keep in mind that the price dropped when they gave away the 3 bln stellar: https://www.stellar.org/blog/bitcoin-claim-lumens/ Before the giveaway: $0.002828 https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20161002/ After giveway: $0.002346 https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20161009/

Price even dropped more, the price before the first giveaway was $0.002828 on october 2nd $0.001972 https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20161030/ $0.001789 ttps://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20161120/ $0.001671 https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20161127/ $0.001585 https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20161204/

And the claimed XLM/STR was ONLY about 900,000,000 On October 6th there were 6,092,409,114 STR/XLM On October 9th there were 6,590,353,992 STR/XLM On October 16th there were 6,851,353,993 STR/XLM End of the year, december 25th: 6,921,534,188 STR/XLM In januari the price was back to the same as before the giveaway.

There are now ONLY 9 BLN stellar and they will giveaway 16 BLN!!! https://www.stellar.org/blog/bitcoin-claim-lumens-2/ So if only 2 BLN will be clamed, I will foresee a price drop of more than 50%

Housam

so we will lose more than 50% of what we hold, I think its better to sell all my stellar before giveaway. please advise sell or hold?

b3no

Looks like someone has a big short placed on Lumens and is trying to spread panic and fear. Many accounts over the internet are writing articles like this on steem.it. The first giveaway had literally ZERO impact on the price! Was there, saw it! There was not even close to 1B claimed from 3B. They allocated the remaining Lumens for the build challange what resulted in many great project and the price went up 2000%, I don't think there is even going to be 3B claimed this time.

Nobody can predict what is going to happen. Saying "I will foresee a price drop of more than 50%" is just plain stupid. I foresee a price increase of 120%. We are going to 0.1 USD.

We know now for 3 years that SDF is going to distribute 90 Billion Lumens. Don't you think that this is calculated into the price? Be careful with your shorts, you may loose everything. This posts are not fooling experienced traders.

tylerdurden

You can't pick and choose the prices you want to post. You forgot to show the .003 peak in October, so don't try to scare everybody to sell lumens when they get them. Plus, the price eventually skyrocketed just as it will do again this time.

bakiuomi

cant be wait for the giveaway

biergod

Not scaring people, these are facts. You can look it up yourself, links are included, so you don't have to do any work, already did it for you. Price stabalised in jan 2017. People who do not trade and just hold on to their stellar don't have to fear anything. Eventualy it will go up again and surpass it's all time hight (ATH). But a price drop after the giveaway is very likely for a few months.

biergod

Everything went up in april and may this year due to the massive BTC price increase, has nothing to do with de posted facts about the prices after the first giveaway. Do your research before you type something, like I did. And no, I'm not shorting, come and visit @stellarlumens on telegram, it has 1k users, you might learn something.

cKartono

Nice , am i in?? Still confuse how's this work.

dstoynov

OK guys I'm thinking another scenario. The current marketcap is around 350M euro. When giveaway starts then the lumens in circulation will be around 27B which will send Lumens with new marketcap ~900M at 9th place. Of course this marketcap will be fake but I read that the same thing is valid for the ETH because large number of ethers are owned by Ethereum Foundation and not by the investors. So with the new 9th spot in the chart a lot new investors could be attracted. But this is one happy path I want to read not only the dark ones a read above :) One week and we will find out...

biergod

That would be nice. Maybe the price correction already happened last month and Maybe the price will keep stable during/after the giveaway, that would be great since the general believe is that the price will be corrected downwards for some time. Would be a very good kick for stellar if I'm/we are proven wrong. Well we have to see and wait.

b3no

Big numbers of users don't mean anything. Group thinking is not healthy when trading. Always trade the opposite of 90% of users, you want to be in the 10% of whales that actually make money. And they don't run around forums announcing their intentions of trading. Nobody in the crypto-trading world gives you advice because they care about you. Everyone is just looking for easy money.

So keep your advice to yourself. Don't tell people how to trade, nobody deserves to loose money because you are greedy. You can't predict the future, period!

biergod

Well it's a free world.

I gave a heads up and my thoughts, crypto is a more voilatile and emotional market and smaller market then any forex or stock market out there. It is going to react, like it always does and you should know that since you're the expert, well at least, that is what you are advocating here, almost want to bet that you got a long on Stellar, or got in to high in stellar right? 😏 Well Actualy don't answer that, know enough.

Anyway, I agree to disagree and won't be censored by you because you think different or anybody else for that matter. The facts about the last giveaway are real, more real then anyones opinion (read: your opinion) and I'm going to stick to that if you don't mind. And even if you do mind it: I realy don't care.

b3no

What? You are intentionally trying to deceive people! I'm just pointing out that you are a ****. I'm not trying to censor you. Facts about the last giveaway? Wtf are you talking about?

You just handpicked some random dates to suit your agenda! The giveaway started on the 5th of July 2016 and ended on the 5th of October 2016.

The price 1 day before the giveaway (4th July): $0.001908 The price 10 days after it started (15th July): $0.002061 (8% up) The price after the giveaway finishes (6th of October): $0.00251 (24% up)

Not to mention that the price was over $0.003 at some points during the giveaway.

This are the only facts!

As I can't link to daily prices you can check all of them for yourself on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/stellar/

jamie

This discussion is good, but can we leave out the name calling please? :slight_smile:

biergod

If you did your fact search right, you would have taken the BTC price in account, but hey, if you want to call names and look even more silly then you already were, be my guest.

Oh here is the graph to show the fact that the giveaway did drop the price (even more than 50% while only 1 of 3BLN was claimed) when it was announced on April 26, 2016 and again after people had the time to claim the free XLM (October 5th, 2016:

The fact that you can't win an argument and have to resolve to name calling just illustrates what kind of person you are, I won't call names, people who read this will know enough.

tylerdurden

The thing is, I did the research too, and there was a general uptrend during the giveaway collecting. July 5th-October 5th. Maybe you should stop trying to correlate things using only one variable. You didn't even consider the STR/BTC market, which btw is much bigger than the STR/USDT market.

If anybody else is reading this, don't listen to other "speculators" and do your own research. Look at the charts yourself!!

tylerdurden

See, you discredit yourself in this chart. We're only looking at July-October. Looks to me like an uptrend during the giveaway. BTW this is the chart you should have used from the beginning. I assume you haven't been trading for very long, otherwise, you'd have used this chart and NOT the USDT

tylerdurden

We can censor you because you are trying to spread FUD in the stellar community. If you used real analytics instead of a random guess, we'd listen a bit closer.

biergod

This is not the USDT chart, this is the BTC chart. But we will see what happens, people seem not to read, if you did you would have read the other replies as well, but you didn't given your latest reply.