what will be the impact of stellar giveaway on the price and circulation supply?

I wrote this already in the @stellarlumens telegram group, but I will copy and paste it here: Giveaway: Keep in mind that the price dropped when they gave away the 3 bln stellar: https://www.stellar.org/blog/bitcoin-claim-lumens/ Before the giveaway: $0.002828 https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20161002/ After giveway: $0.002346 https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20161009/ Price even dropped more, the price before the first giveaway was $0.002828 on october 2nd $0.001972 https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20161030/ $0.001789 ttps://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20161120/ $0.001671 https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20161127/ $0.001585 https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20161204/ And the claimed XLM/STR was ONLY about 900,000,000 On October 6th there were 6,092,409,114 STR/XLM On October 9th there were 6,590,353,992 STR/XLM On October 16th there were 6,851,353,993 STR/XLM End of the year, december 25th: 6,921,534,188 STR/XLM In januari the price was back to the same as before the giveaway. There are now ONLY 9 BLN stellar and they will giveaway 16 BLN!!! https://www.stellar.org/blog/bitcoin-claim-lumens-2/ So if only 2 BLN will be clamed, I will foresee a price drop of more than 50%

so we will lose more than 50% of what we hold, I think its better to sell all my stellar before giveaway. please advise sell or hold?

Looks like someone has a big short placed on Lumens and is trying to spread panic and fear. Many accounts over the internet are writing articles like this on steem.it. The first giveaway had literally ZERO impact on the price! Was there, saw it! There was not even close to 1B claimed from 3B. They allocated the remaining Lumens for the build challange what resulted in many great project and the price went up 2000%, I don't think there is even going to be 3B claimed this time. Nobody can predict what is going to happen. Saying "I will foresee a price drop of more than 50%" is just plain stupid. I foresee a price increase of 120%. We are going to 0.1 USD. We know now for 3 years that SDF is going to distribute 90 Billion Lumens. Don't you think that this is calculated into the price? Be careful with your shorts, you may loose everything. This posts are not fooling experienced traders.

You can't pick and choose the prices you want to post. You forgot to show the .003 peak in October, so don't try to scare everybody to sell lumens when they get them. Plus, the price eventually skyrocketed just as it will do again this time.

Not scaring people, these are facts. You can look it up yourself, links are included, so you don't have to do any work, already did it for you. Price stabalised in jan 2017. People who do not trade and just hold on to their stellar don't have to fear anything. Eventualy it will go up again and surpass it's all time hight (ATH). But a price drop after the giveaway is very likely for a few months.

Everything went up in april and may this year due to the massive BTC price increase, has nothing to do with de posted facts about the prices after the first giveaway. Do your research before you type something, like I did. And no, I'm not shorting, come and visit @stellarlumens on telegram, it has 1k users, you might learn something.

Nice , am i in?? Still confuse how's this work.

OK guys I'm thinking another scenario. The current marketcap is around 350M euro. When giveaway starts then the lumens in circulation will be around 27B which will send Lumens with new marketcap ~900M at 9th place. Of course this marketcap will be fake but I read that the same thing is valid for the ETH because large number of ethers are owned by Ethereum Foundation and not by the investors. So with the new 9th spot in the chart a lot new investors could be attracted. But this is one happy path I want to read not only the dark ones a read above :) One week and we will find out...

That would be nice. Maybe the price correction already happened last month and Maybe the price will keep stable during/after the giveaway, that would be great since the general believe is that the price will be corrected downwards for some time. Would be a very good kick for stellar if I'm/we are proven wrong. Well we have to see and wait.

Giveaway impact

Housam

giveaway stellar to bitcoin holders is not fair to stellar holders in this way they encourage stellar holders to sell their shares (str). every thing free has no value.

biergod

Agreed on that, but I think it still is a great thing to rise awareness, in the end it will be a good PR stunt imho But to give away 16BLN when there is only 9BLN in the market... Well time will tell if it was the right thing to do.

tylerdurden

This is too funny!! Please read my comment again because you keep contradicting yourself. Maybe you should read what people are trying to write and stop picking fights. @jamie can you just delete this post, as it's misleading people and become a back and forth argument over who needs to "learn how to read." I don't know who biergod is, but he shouldn't be providing advice for people looking for real information.

biergod

Should just copy and paste your post here, but it is to much work, read it again and you have my reply.

jamie

A forum would be pretty boring if everybody agreed with each other so I won't be deleting it @"tylerdurden"#7649. It's actually an interesting discussion once people don't start abusing others.

biergod

Agreed on that, people should learn not to call names at people and try to censor others, instead join a healty discussion, but seems that these two can't handle that.

jamie

Let's not make this forum an echo chamber where everybody posts that stellar is going to the moon. It's healthy to talk about both the positives and the negatives with things like this. At the end of the day some people have a lot of money tied up to crypto, so it wouldn't be fair to only allow positive posts.

tylerdurden

There is a difference between FUD by biergod and a legit analysis. I might as well post something about the correlation between UFO sightings and the price of Stellar.

epaterna

I feel back to time when I was playing at Ultima Online and flaming on the forums

Sorry the OT, J

biergod

By the way, everybody on these exchanges is getting free stellar automaticly when they are holding BTC, they don't have to do anything for it: Participating exchanges (we’ll update this list as exchanges contact us):

Kraken BTC38 Poloniex Deribit Yuanbao NaoBTC If your bitcoins are located on any of the above exchanges there is no action for you to take. They will handle the process of automatically crediting your account with the appropriate amount of lumens.

Source: https://www.stellar.org/blog/bitcoin-claim-lumens-2/

Even people who don't care about Stellar will get it for free, they don't have to do anything. Easy money for them. But awareness will rise for sure when they look at their Exchange wallets and think "hmmmm how the hell did I get these STR/XLM 🤔"

biergod

In 2016 only these exchanges participated: Kraken BTC38 Poloniex

Source: https://www.stellar.org/blog/bitcoin-claim-lumens/

biergod

I know you want "to believe" I can see it in your replies.

b3no

Obviously your FUD is not working as the price went 7% up in the last 24h. So stop desperately trying to convince everyone there is a price crash incoming. Let the market speak.

You must be new to Stellar and have no idea what happened last time during the giveaway. Non of the participating exchanges (Kraken, BTC38 or Poloniex) gave any Lumens to their users. Also this time (source Jed on slack) said that they don't have any idea how the exchanges will participate they just said (like last time) they will. They don't have any obligations to do so. With all the new chaos their support is overwhelmed and I would not be surprised if they decided not to put extra work on their support with dealing with this giveaway.

Don't forget that for people to participate they need to prove their identity, what many of big bitcoin holder are not willing to do. Satoshi is not going to claim his 6%. The rest is just small holders that will get $5 of Stellar. Many are not going to go to all this trouble to exchange it and just keep holding.

But they may decide to take a deeper look into stellar and discover all the beauty (decentralised exchange, multiple currencies, supper easy to issue your coin, KYM, AML, ....).

biergod

And your 7% is almost gone again. Don't get to hot or get out of the sun 😉

biergod

And no, they do not have to prove identity to Stellar with Facebook etc. when they are on the exchanges (they will get the Lumens automaticly, don't have to do a thing), do you even read the official stellar blog or are you making up things just when you like to?

biergod

By the way, I think Stellar is awesome and I know about all the beautiful things, I have never said it isn't. This discussion is about the giveaway and the impact on the price of Lumens, not about Stellar the organisation, which is awesome (see I said it again).

bakiuomi

i think impact low rate. but only in few weeks i think because before giveaway succes and now rate still good

biergod

Read this: https://stellarcommunity.org/t/preparing-for-the-next-stellar-giveaway-will-the-price-rise-or-drop/

Housam

I think this is a shit

b3no

All this FUD and the price went up 15% since the giveaway started. I feel sorry for all the people that were tricked to put in shorts.

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